Copyright Mike Markrich photo
Replacing Hawaiʻi’s Old Cars: A Strategy for Energy Security and Resilience
In Hawaii a conservative estimate is that 300,000 cars on our road are 15 years old or older. (.25 of 1,200,000 vehicles in Hawaii) = One sees them everywhere- sometimes immaculately painted, jacked up with large wheels and restored with pride. But also dinged, damaged, repaired with bondo and belching white smoke from long ago blown head gaskets. Like most old cars in Hawaii they are driven approximately 11,000 miles per year. (Based on US Federal Highway Administration estimates).
Why do people keep them going? Well first of all they what most people can afford and second in Hawaii many of the vintage cars are Ford Trucks or Japanese - Toyotas,Nissans and Hondas that have the potential for long lifespans for over 300,000 miles. Why is this an issue? Because large numbers of the cars people like to keep use a lot of gasoline. (est 16 mpg with the air conditioning running.) This works out to a conservative estimate of 475,000,000 gallons per year . The old cars represent 25% of the total cars and trucks in Hawaii but use an estimated 43% of the gas used per year. Many people s love their old cars and don’t want to exchange them for a newer more energy efficient gas powered or electric vehicle. They simply live with high repair bills and gas prices as a fact of life. Its very difficult for State energy planners to reduce petroleum imports because the cost of driving old cars increases every year.
China provides a useful example of what can happen if people can be convinced to change from old gas vehicles to modern electric cars. In China, EV cars have allowed the country to use electricity to power their growing number of cars rather than gasolinr. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), new electric vehicles displaced approximately 1 million barrels of oil per day from their former use in old cars in China in 2025.
This transition did not happen automatically. China invested in electric cars and trucks, battery manufacturing, charging networks, and battery-swapping technology. Government incentives and vehicle-replacement programs also helped accelerate the transition. They also make it clear that old cars that do not pass their strict inspection rules for air pollution must be scrapped. They are not sentimental. For them fewer old cars has direct short term benefit. They are less dependent on imported oil. They also experience cleaner air.
Hawaiʻi faces a different challenge
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hawaiʻi had approximately 28,900 battery-electric light-duty vehicles and 8,400 plug-in hybrids in 2024, out of approximately 1.2 million cars and light-duty vehicles. Together, these vehicles represented about 3.7% of the fleet.
The principal federal tax credits for purchasing new and used clean vehicles ended for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025, making them less affordable for most people
Hawaiian Electric reported in 2026 that half of its Oʻahu customers in single-family homes had rooftop solar and many of those people have electric vehicles they can charge from the sun or batteries they keep at home,.
However, renters and many condominium residents cannot independently install rooftop solar or private charging equipment. They may need shared charging facilities, workplace charging, public charging stations, or assistance with electrical upgrades. Because over half the people are renters the issue is moot. They keep driving their old cars because they have no choice.
Why transportation electrification matters during emergencies
Hawaiʻi's dependence on imported petroleum makes transportation vulnerable to oil-price shocks and disruptions to fuel deliveries. As hurricanes and other disasters become more frequent along with power outages, it will become harder for drivers to get the gasoline they need to drive.
An electric vehicle with a charged battery may make the difference between driving where ever you want of sitting for hours in long lines for gasoline to run your car.
In addition to the need to save fuel, for reasons of basic survival during emergencies, Hawaiʻi should develop a program to help residents replace aging gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles and practical transportation alternatives.
A measurable goal for 2035
One possible goal for the future would be a program to replace 100,000 old gasoline vehicles, 15 years and over, with EVs by 2035. This would be an ambitious target requiring sustained incentives, affordable vehicles, accessible charging, and participation from households across income levels.
Reducing gasoline consumption by old cars would lower Hawaiʻi's exposure to oil-price shocks and reduce the amount of fuel needed.
A transportation strategy that also improves resilience
Hawaiʻi should consider three complementary initiatives.
1. Expand affordable electric-vehicle ownership.
Targeted assistance for qualifying low-income households and seniors could help residents purchase affordable new or used EVs. The state could also support shared charging facilities and electrical upgrades at apartment buildings and condominiums.
2. Connect solar energy with emergency preparedness.
Solar panels, batteries, and appropriately equipped EVs can help provide electricity during some power outages.
A well-designed network of emergency charging locations could help residents maintain mobility during prolonged outages and disruptions to fuel distribution.
3. Provide electric community shuttles.
Reliable, affordable shuttles would be particularly valuable for seniors and residents who have difficulty driving or maintaining a car. They could reduce household transportation expenses and allow some residents to give up their vehicles without losing access to essential services.
.Conclusion
Hawaiʻi has an opportunity to address several problems at once: an aging gas guzzling vehicle fleet, high transportation costs, dependence on imported petroleum, and vulnerability due to climate change.
The objective should not simply be to put more electric vehicles on the road. It should be to give residents practical, affordable alternatives .
1. The estmate for the number of old used cars on the road are based on Automotive data firms like S&P Global Mobility.
Nationally and regionally, vehicles aged 15 years and older make up roughly 25% to 28% of all active registrations. So I used 25 % as the estimate of Hawaiis 1.2 million cars . The Federal Highway Administration's 2022 National Household Travel Survey reported approximately 14% of vehicles were 15–19 years old, 7% were 20–24 years old, and 5% were 25 years or older. That gives a combined national share of 26% aged 15 or older.
Federal Highway Administration. Hawaii’s cars tend to lean older because so many cars here are from Japan and they have long engine lives. This is true also of Ford 150s, the US’s most popular light truck. Although the most popular small trucks in Hawaii are the Nissan Frontier and the Toyota Tacoma.
Using the preliminary estimate of 1,204,856 taxable vehicle registrations in Hawaiʻi:
Calculation
Estimate
Taxable registrations
1,204,856
National share aged 15+
26%-30%
Estimated vehicles aged 15 in Hawaii. But it may be greater. - further research needs to be done
313,263 - I used 300,000 as my bench mark
This assumes Hawaiʻi has the same age distribution as the national fleet and treats taxable registrations as a proxy for operating vehicles. Neither assumption has been verified. However I think the number may be greater.
The estimate of 16 mpg for old SUVs with the AC running is an estimate based on gas mileage of vehicles from 2000-2011 and then estimating a 20 to 30 percent decline in mileage due to age.
11,000 Hawai Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) data, divided by licensed drivers, puts Hawaii at 10,980 miles per driver. An older FHWA-based figure said Hawaiians put about 11,104 miles per year on their vehicles. But some place the number as low as 8,000 because Hawaii drivers drive shorter distances than other state
475 million gallons per year is from the 2024 Hawaii state data book
Estimate the average annual gas consumpion
475,000.000 X 27.2 / 1.2 million - average annual number of miles driven by cars in Hawaii
Approximately 11,000
Step 2. Calculate gasoline consumption by the 300,000 older cars.
300,000 X 11,000/ 16
Estimated annual gasoline consumption by older cars
206,250 million gallons
Approximately 42.5% of Hawaiʻi's total annual gasoline use
