Can Coconut Trees Save the Big Island Economy?
Michael Markrich Copyright 2024
The Big Island economy has recently elected a new mayor, Dr. Kimo Almeida. He takes over an economy that has spent much of the last four years recovering from the impacts of COVID 19. The local cost of living is high, affordable housing is difficult to find and there are few jobs paying enough for people to support a family. In a trifecta of problems; the Hawaii Supreme Court ruled 5-0 against the operation of the 520 million dollar - Hu Honua biomass plant in Pepeekeo (1) leaving the state-of- the- art plant a stranded asset, large numbers of families out of work and 20,000 acres of flammable eucalyptus trees standing with no place to go.
A New Vision
But where some see problems Native Hawaiian Entrepreneur and microgrid/hydrogen specialist, AJ Perkins sees opportunity. Perkins proposes replacing eucalyptus trees with coconut plantations to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), a sector experiencing a significant surge in demand. According to a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2) demand for SAF has grown 1400% in the last year to meet the new demand for SAF in which coconut oil could be a key ingredient. Perkins believes that reviving coconuts, one of Hawaii's original canoe crops, could be one of the components to economic revitalization, alongside other promising sectors such as renewable energy, hydrogen production, and geothermal power. SAF is a drop-in fuel in which green waste products, such as restaurant waste, wood chips and other bio fuels are mixed with aviation fuel as a ‘drop in’ ingredient to reduce CO2 There is a shortage of these products and coconut with its high burn rate is highly sought after (3). “I have a client in the Philippines who supplies coconut shells to two power producers in Japan. He recently signed a SAF off-take agreement with a manufacturer," Perkins says. "He tells me that he will buy all the coconuts I we can grow.” (4). There are cavaeats however. In order for this vision to be realized in Hawaii, potential growers must deal with the uncertainty of whether the new Trump Administration will support SAF fuels and whether the growing the coconuts as a crop will be possible without making worse the existing coconut rhinoceros beetle problem.
The Coconut Advantage
Perkins pecifically mentions that 40,000 acres of agricultural land in Hamakua could host 115 million coconut trees, maturing in just four years. With global demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) surging, this initiative could bring more jobs and revenue to the Big Island than any crop since the sugarcane era. “The potential for Hawaii to lead in SAF production is extraordinary,” he says. "This isn’t just about economic growth; it’s about aligning our islands with global sustainability goals." Coconuts offer a unique advantage. They’re tough, thriving in conditions where other crops fail—saline soils, dry landscapes, even barren hillsides. They need minimal water and care, yet they provide a wealth of products: SAF feedstock from husks, coconut milk, and oil.
Beyond agriculture, this effort could spark a rise in eco-tourism, drawing visitors eager to see Hawaii’s innovative sustainability practices in action. It’s an opportunity to revitalize communities like Hamakua while showcasing a model of green development to the world. This is our chance to lead, to solve today’s challenges, and to inspire the world. (5)
Global Context and Challenges
Hawaii is of course not alone in this. Millions of acres of Coconut trees in the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam are also heavily involved and invested in SAF. The reason for this is a recent decision by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to include non-standard coconuts (coconuts with cracks and mold) as an internationally accepted biofuel feedstock. There are an estimated 1.5 - 5 million metric tons of non-standard coconuts produced per year. This is considered insufficient to meet present world demand for renewable jet fuel. The estimated global demand from mandated SAF is anticipated to reach 16 million Mt or more by 2030. (6)
Japan alone anticipates that its SAF demand will reach 10.8mn bl/yr (nearly 460 million gallons) per year by 2030. This is because Japan’s ministry of trade and industry Meti) is in the process of mandating that 10 percent of all airlines in Japan by volume be SAF.)
The reason for the shortage is the lack of sustainable sources of sources of feedstock for renewable green jet fuel to meet demand. Used cooking oil does not exist in enough quantity to meet demand and palm oil is not suitable because it does not meet ICAO standards as a “sustainable” crop.
The first flights using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) were successfully refueled in Vietnam on Oct. 17 and departed from Tan Son Nhat International Airport in Ho Chi Minh City. (8)
Two flights using SAF operated by Vietjet have departed from Vietnam to Melbourne (Australia) and Seoul (Incheon, South Korea), with the sustainable fuel provided by Petrolimex Aviation. They estimate that SAF can reduce carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional fossil fuels. (9)
Caution is warranted though. Some aviation experts such as Stan Osserman believe that people should be aware that this is not a simple process and the chemical standards for SAF are still being determined.
Others have questioned whether Hawaii, as a sub-tropical climate, is a good place for coconut tree crops and raise concerns about exacerbating problems with the destructive rhino beetle. The rhinoceros beetle, which was first found on Oahu in 2013 and in Waikoloa ten years later is already a significant pest. In Samoa where it has been for more than century it has been successfully contained through integrated pest management. The beetle can be controlled but not eradicated. (10)“I have talked to coconut experts in the Philippines (the Philippines is the world leader in coconut production) and they tell me that Hawaii is an ideal place for growing coconut trees. They also have dealt with the coconut rhinoceros beetle issue (CRB)” says Perkins, who has been in communication with the Dean of the University of Hawaii College of Agriculture.
The rhinoceros beetle issue has been dealt with extensively where ever coconut trees are grown and are generally kept under control through insecticides or biological controls. According to Greg Takeshima , Acting Plant Administrator, Hawaii Department of Agriculture, Plant Industry Division the CRB is presently under control in Hawaii (10)
However, media outlets and environmental organizations have expressed concern that the CRB is seriously threatening Hawaii’s ecosystem. (11)
The other issues are whether if to control the CRB, pesticides need to be applied to the trees, can they be safely incinerated. At least one report bty the USDA there is no danger of this at high temperatures. 12
Lastly there is the question of whether the incoming Trump administration will support the production of SAF. Will they continue the Biden
Administration popular Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) that supports Bio-fuels. There is some thought they will because many ethanol producers in the Midwest have been significant supporters of President Trump.13 https://adi-analytics.com/2024/11/20/policy-shifts-in-trumps-second-term-could-threaten-u-s-saf-and-biofuel-progress/. However it must be stated that if tariffs on foreign biofuel feedstock goes into the effect, the value of Hawaii grown coconuts in the US market could be very advantageous,
Advantages to Hawaii
The advantage of raising coconuts in Hawaii, according to AJ Perkins, is not only a great return but the process is fairly benign. Coconut trees use relatively small amount of water, they actually can grow in salt water, they can be grown on barren hillsides, and they don’t require a lot of capital or labor to maintain. The husks for SAF do not have to be picked from the trees; they can be collected from the ground. There is a market for the husks, the coconut milk and the coconut oil.
Eucalyptus trees are known for their high flammability due to their oil-rich leaves, loose bark, and flammable litter, making them a significant fire hazard in many areas. In contrast, coconut trees are believed to be less fire-prone due to their higher moisture content, lack of volatile oils, and different bark structure, potentially offering a safer alternative in fire-susceptible regions.
This is why this may be the ideal crop to replace eucalyptus in Hamakua says Perkins.
Coconut shells offer significant advantages as a biomass fuel source, including sustainability as a waste product, carbon neutrality due to their growth cycle, and the reduction of agricultural waste. By utilizing coconut shells for energy production, power plants can contribute to a more circular economy while potentially providing additional income for coconut farmers. With coconuts as a feed stock the Hu Honua plant can likely meet more exacting environmental emission standards because it burns hotter and people on the Big Island employed as the economy goes to work to satisfy the demands of this new SAF era
A Path Forward
While Perkins is on a mission to help make the Big Island the "First Hydrogen County in the US", he also remains optimistic about Hawaii's potential as an ideal location for coconut cultivation. If successful, this initiative could transform idle lands into productive assets, providing employment opportunities and aligning Hawaii with global sustainability efforts.
"Challenges still exist," Perkins acknowledges, "but coconuts could be a game-changer. They offer a real opportunity to revitalize the Big Island's economy by capitalizing on the growing sustainable aviation fuel market and tapping into Hawaii’s unique agricultural potential."
References
https://www.civilbeat.org/2023/03/hawaii-supreme-court-unanimously-rejects-big-islands-hu-honua-power-project/2.(2) (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62504) (3) https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/travel%20transport%20and%20logistics/our%20insights/scaling%20sustainable%20aviation%20fuel%20today%20for%20clean%20skies%20tomorrow/clean-skies-for-tomorrow.pdf 4Personal interview with Al Perkins Nov 12 2024 (4).Ibid (5) ibid (6) https://www.reccessary.com/en/news/id-technology/indonesia-plans-develop-coconut-based-sustainable-aviation-fuel (7)https://www.icf.com/insights/aviation/saf-ecosystem-in-japan,https://www.resourcewise.com/environmental-blog/driving-change-in-aviation-japan-announces-10-saf-mandate (8) https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietjet-launches-first-flights-using-sustainable-aviation-fuel-post300465.vnp
(9) https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietjet-launches-first-flights-using-sustainable-aviation-fuel-post300465.vnp 10. Personal Email from Mr. Takeshima Nov 26, 2024 11) https://www.civilbeat.org/2024/10/coconut-rhinoceros-beetles-deal-fatal-blow-to-hawaii-palm-trees/ 12https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/ja/ja_bush001.pdf 13https://adi-analytics.com/2024/11/20/policy-shifts-in-trumps-second-term-could-threaten-u-s-saf-and-biofuel-progress/